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| The chart "The Exponential Growth of Computing, 1900-1998" is based on the following data: | ||||||
| Date | Device | Add Time (sec) | Calculations per Second (cps) | Cost (then dollars) | Cost 1998 Dollars | CPS/$1000 |
| 1900 | Analytical Engine | 9.00E200 | 1.11E201 | $1,000,000 | $19,087,000 | 5.821E206 |
| 1908 | Hollerith Tabulator | 5.00E101 | 2.00E202 | $9,000 | $154,000 | 1.299E204 |
| 1911 | Monroe Calculator | 3.00E101 | 3.33E202 | $35,000 | $576,000 | 5.787E205 |
| 1919 | IBM Tabulator | 5.00E200 | 2.00E201 | $20,000 | $188,000 | 1.064E203 |
| 1928 | National Ellis 3000 | 1.00E101 | 1.00E201 | $15,000 | $143,000 | 6.993E204 |
| 1939 | Zuse 2 | 1.00E200 | 1.00E200 | $10,000 | $117,000 | 8.547E203 |
| 1940 | Bell Calculator Model 1 | 3.00E201 | 3.33E200 | $20,000 | $233,000 | 1.431E202 |
| 1941 | Zuse 3 | 3.00E201 | 3.33E200 | $6,500 | $72,000 | 4.630E202 |
| 1943 | Colossus | 2.00E204 | 5.00E103 | $100,000 | $942,000 | 5.308E200 |
| 1946 | ENIAC | 2.00E204 | 5.00E103 | $750,000 | $6,265,000 | 7.981E201 |
| 1948 | IBM SSEC | 8.00E204 | 1.25E103 | $500,000 | $3,380,000 | 3.698E201 |
| 1949 | BINAC | 2.86E204 | 3.50E103 | $278,000 | $1,903,000 | 1.837E200 |
| 1949 | EDSAC | 1.40E203 | 7.14E102 | $100,000 | $684,000 | 1.044E200 |
| 1951 | Univac I | 1.20E204 | 8.33E103 | $930,000 | $5,827,000 | 1.430E200 |
| 1953 | Univac 1103 | 3.00E205 | 3.33E104 | $895,000 | $5,461,000 | 6.104E200 |
| 1953 | IBM 701 | 6.00E205 | 1.67E104 | $230,000 | $1,403,000 | 1.188E101 |
| 1954 | EDVAC | 9.00E204 | 1.11E103 | $500,000 | $3,028,000 | 3.669E201 |
| 1955 | Whirlwind | 5.00E205 | 2.00E104 | $200,000 | $1,216,000 | 1.645E101 |
| 1955 | IBM 704 | 2.40E205 | 4.17E104 | $1,994,000 | $12,120,000 | 3.438E200 |
| 1958 | Datamatic 1000 | 2.50E204 | 4.00E103 | $2,179,100 | $12,283,000 | 3.257E201 |
| 1958 | Univac II | 2.00E204 | 5.00E103 | $970,000 | $5,468,000 | 9.144E201 |
| 1959 | Mobidic | 1.60E205 | 6.25E104 | $1,340,000 | $7,501,000 | 8.332E200 |
| 1959 | IBM 7090 | 4.00E206 | 2.50E105 | $3,000,000 | $16,794,000 | 1.489E101 |
| 1960 | IBM 1620 | 6.00E204 | 1.67E103 | $200,000 | $1,101,000 | 1.514E200 |
| 1960 | DEC PDP-1 | 1.00E205 | 1.00E105 | $120,000 | $660,000 | 1.515E102 |
| 1961 | DEC PDP-4 | 1.00E205 | 1.00E105 | $65,000 | $354,000 | 2.825E102 |
| 1962 | Univac III | 9.00E206 | 1.11E105 | $700,000 | $3,776,000 | 2.943E101 |
| 1964 | CDC 6600 | 2.00E207 | 5.00E106 | $6,000,000 | $31,529,000 | 1.586E102 |
| 1965 | IBM 1130 | 8.00E206 | 1.25E105 | $50,000 | $259,000 | 4.826E102 |
| 1965 | DEC PDP-8 | 6.00E206 | 1.67E105 | $18,000 | $93,000 | 1.792E103 |
| 1966 | IBM 360 Model 75 | 8.00E207 | 1.25E106 | $5,000,000 | $25,139,000 | 4.972E101 |
| 1968 | DEC PDP-10 | 2.00E206 | 5.00E105 | $500,000 | $2,341,000 | 2.136E102 |
| 1973 | Intellec-8 | 1.56E204 | 6.41E103 | $2,398 | $8,798 | 7.286E102 |
| 1973 | Data General Nova | 2.00E205 | 5.00E104 | $4,000 | $14,700 | 3.401E103 |
| 1975 | Altair 8800 | 1.56E205 | 6.41E104 | $2,000 | $6,056 | 1.058E104 |
| 1976 | DEC PDP-11 Model 70 | 3.00E206 | 3.33E105 | $150,000 | $429,000 | 7.770E102 |
| 1977 | Cray 1 | 1.00E208 | 1.00E108 | $10,000,000 | $26,881,000 | 3.720E103 |
| 1977 | Apple II | 1.00E205 | 1.00E105 | $1,300 | $3,722 | 2.687E104 |
| 1979 | DEC VAX 11 Model 780 | 2.00E206 | 5.00E105 | $200,000 | $449,000 | 1.114E103 |
| 1980 | Sun-1 | 3.00E206 | 3.33E105 | $30,000 | $59,300 | 5.621E103 |
| 1982 | IBM PC | 1.56E206 | 6.41E105 | $3,000 | $5,064 | 1.266E105 |
| 1982 | Compaq Portable | 1.56E206 | 6.41E105 | $3,000 | $5,064 | 1.266E105 |
| 1983 | IBM AT-80286 | 1.25E206 | 8.00E105 | $5,669 | $9,272 | 8.628E104 |
| 1984 | Apple Macintosh | 3.00E206 | 3.33E105 | $2,500 | $3,920 | 8.503E104 |
| 1986 | Compaq Deskpro 386 | 2.50E207 | 4.00E106 | $5,000 | $7,432 | 5.382E105 |
| 1987 | Apple Mac II | 1.00E206 | 1.00E106 | $3,000 | $4,300 | 2.326E105 |
| 1993 | Pentium PC | 1.00E207 | 1.00E107 | $2,500 | $2,818 | 3.549E106 |
| 1996 | Pentium PC | 1.00E208 | 1.00E108 | $2,000 | $2,080 | 4.808E107 |
| 1998 | Pentium II PC | 5.00E209 | 2.00E108 | $1,500 | $1,500 | 1.333E108 |
Cost conversions from dollars in each year to 1998 dollars are based on the ratio of the consumer price indices (CPI) for the respective years, based on CPI data as recorded by the Woodrow Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. See their web site.
Charles Babbage designed the Analytical Engine in the 1830s and continued to refine the concept until his death in 1871. Babbage never completed his invention. I have estimated a date of 1900 for the Analytical Engine as an estimated date for when its mechanical technology became feasible, based on the availability of other mechanical computing technology available in that time period.
Sources for the chart "The Exponential Growth of Computing, 19001998" include the following:
25 Years of Computer History
BYTE Magazine "Birth of a Chip"
cdc.html@www.citybeach.wa.edu (Stretch)
Chronology of Digital Computing Machines
Chronology of Events in the History of Microcomputers
The Computer Museum History Center
delan at infopad.eecs.berkeley.edu
Electronic Computers Within the Ordnance Corps
General Processor Information
The History of Computing at Los Alamos
The Machine Room
Mind Machine Web Museum
Hans Moravec at Carnegie Mellon University: Computer Data
PC Magazine Online: Fifteen Years of PC Magazine
PC Museum
PDP-8 Emulation
Silicon Graphics Webpage press release
Stan Augarten, Bit by Bit: An Illustrated History of Computers (New York: Ticknor & Fields, 1984).
International Association of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), "Annals of the History of the Computer," vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 150153 (1987).
IEEE, vol. 16, no. 3, p. 20 (1994).
Hans Moravec, Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1988).
René Moreau, The Computer Comes of Age (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1984).
Copyright © Ray Kurzweil, 1998