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If the stock market is a crock, easily manipulated by government and banks, pushed around by institutional investors so that small-time fundamental research becomes meaningless, is there any wise way to approach it?

Some would point to gaming actions by the Federal Reserve and government. If they pump money into the economy, as they did a year ago, stocks will go up and we should all just ride that trend higher. Fine, but what about when the free money and stimuli fade out? Down go stocks. Do you know when the money and stimuli will fade? Probably not. I don't.

Oh sure, there's heated debate about it. Second guessing the Fed's next move is a cottage industry in the investment world, but it's no easier than guessing the market's next move. Giving up on guessing market direction in favor of guessing Fed policy is like standing up from an ice chair to lie down on a snow bed.

Among the few things we know for sure about stocks is this: they fluctuate. They go up, they go down, and you don't really know which they're going to do next. If you can accept that, you're already ahead of about 80 percent of investors who have to learn it the hard way -with real money.

Stocks go up, they go down, and we all know we should buy them after they've gone down but before they go up. With me so far? Good, then the next challenge is how to know when they've gone down and should be bought, or have gone up and should be sold.

Since you don't know, and I don't know, and neither do any of the confidently talking heads on TV, let's use a formula instead. Let's let the market's price itself tell us when it should be bought for future profits, or sold to book current profits.

That's what I'll explore with you tomorrow.

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