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This is the third is a series of posts this week on the psychology behind the many false 2008 U.S. Presidential election rumors in circulation. These rumors abound on both sides of the ideological spectrum: Barack Obama is a Muslim, swore his oath of allegiance on the Koran, and was trained in a terrorist training camp. Sarah Palin is Trig's grandmother, she's part of a group that wants Alaska to secede from the Union, and she tried to ban Harry Potter books from Wasilla Library. All of these rumors are false.

Why do these rumors abound?

My short answer to this question is: one part uncertainty, one part belief, and one part defensive sentiment. And possibly one part propaganda.

We've looked at the role of uncertainty and belief thus far. In this installment, we'll tackle defensive sentiment and touch upon the question of whether or not these rumors are planted.

One Part Defensive Sentiment

Rumors are sometimes used to defend oneself against a threat. The threat posed can be psychological in nature. A situation may challenge a belief, attitude, mindset, or sense of identity. Strong feelings of defensiveness can be called forth when we-or groups that we identify with-are criticized or derogated; we can feel very threatened indeed. Rumors can neutralize such threats, for example, by denigrating the source of the challenge or by bolstering our own position, cause, or group.

In 2007, WorldPublicOpinion.org conducted an in-depth survey of citizens from four predominately Muslim countries-Egypt, Morocco, Pakistan, and Indonesia; the sample was representative of the population of each of these countries. The survey explored sentiments toward the United States and Al Qaeda, and attitudes about the use of violence on civilian populations. Very large majorities of participants opposed violence against civilians, as exemplified in the acts of September 11, 2001 perpetrated by Al Qaeda. However, because American intentions are widely believed to be hostile to Islam, respondents were motivated not to criticize any group-including Al Qaeda-antagonistic to the United States.

Among a number of interesting findings were the perceptions of who was responsible for the attacks of September 11^th. Only a very small minority-2 percent of Pakistanis, for example-thought that Al Qaeda orchestrated the attacks. When pressed in focus groups that Osama bin Laden had taken responsibility for the attacks on videotape, many participants became visibly uncomfortable and defensive, expressed disbelief, and suggested that the video was fake. A common response was that "Hollywood can create anything."

Instead, many thought that unknown persons, Israel, or even the United States was behind the events. To wit, rumors persist that 4,000 Jews were told by the Israeli Secret Service on September 10, 2001, not to report to work at the World Trade Center the next day-the implication being that Israel bombed the buildings to incite anti-Arab sentiment. Rumors portraying Israel or the United States as masterminding September 11^th are likely to spring up in situations where participants feel defensive about Al Qaeda's role in the attacks.

Arab nations, of course, do not have a monopoly on such rumors-they circulate among all people whenever defensive sentiments arise. False rumors of widespread Arab celebration at the destruction of the Twin Towers on September 11^th are also well-known.

Undoubtedly, some people are spreading derogatory rumors about Barack Obama and Sarah Palin in part because they feel threatened. In one sense the rumors are motivated by fear: The candidate whom they oppose stands a fair chance of gaining office. This is a scary thought for many people (the fear is rational or irrational, depending on your point of view). Partisans who strongly identify as liberals or conservatives would be greatly dismayed should the ticket representing the opposing ideology win because they sincerely believe that the country will be worse off.

But the other part of the defensiveness surrounding these rumors is about hate. Partisans who spread these rumors may do so as an aggressive act against the rival party-as a way to express hostility, resentment, and anger. It's not very pretty to talk about. Spreaders of the Obama rumors may do so in part to justify strong feelings of antipathy toward liberals; spreaders of the Palin rumors may do so in part to justify strong feelings of antipathy toward conservatives.

I've seen it go in both directions. I've heard some of the Obama rumors stated in such a way that leaves no doubt about a dislike for liberals. Most recently I've been surprised by the vitriolic flavor surrounding the discussion of Senator Palin. Some nerve has been touched and it's hard to find calm, reasoned, informed and charitable parlor room debate in this election. Rumors denigrating the other side are a way to venting palpable negative sentiment.

In a similar way, these rumors also serve at the same time to justify negative sentiment. Politics has always been a hot topic, but what can explain the current acrimony between Democrats and Republicans? Negative rumors about politicians from the opposing party help people justify their intense dislike for that candidate or party. I receive negative political e-rumors from both sides of the aisle. These rumors are always of "the other side is bad" variety. They are never checked for veracity, but simply forwarded to friends believed to be likeminded. These rumors serve a purpose-to justify negative sentiment toward the rival group-in this case, the opposing political party. We would normally consider such bias for what it is-unfair and distasteful; rumors, however, can make it palatable.

One Part Propaganda?

The last part raises a question: Are these rumors planted? Propaganda rumors-misinformation deliberately planted to gain political, strategic, competitive, or military advantage-have a long history. During World War II, German agents alternately spread upbeat and downbeat rumors one after another among the French with the intention to confuse and demoralize the French people. The infamous Nazi propagandist Joseph Goebbels also spread many different rumors about German operations so that they functioned as a "smokescreen"; the real intention of German activity was thus difficult to discern. Many of the wedge-driving rumors collected by the Massachusetts Committee of Public Safety during this time could be traced back to Axis radio broadcasts whose intentions were to divide Allied forces against themselves.

Similarly, political propaganda rumors may be driven by strong polarization and competition. Rumor researcher Jean-Noel Kapferer describes rumors circulating before municipal elections in 1983 in Grenoble, France. The rumors alleged that Hubert Dubedout, the socialist mayor, had an Algerian mother and was related to a wealthy tycoon from Arabic North Africa, a "Mr. Boudoudou" (the names sound familiar). The rumors may have contributed to Dubedout's defeat in that election. (It is startling how this rumor mirrors the Obama-is-a-Muslim tale). Allport and Postman called such political propaganda rumors "whispering campaigns." More recently, the late Saddam Hussein regularly spread rumors to discourage resistance to his dictatorship. In light of this, rumors that he possessed weapons of mass destruction are likely to have first originated from Hussein himself, as well as Hussein's opponents (e.g., Ahmed Chalabi and other Iraqi defectors) who desired U.S. assistance in toppling him.

It is not at all hard to imagine someone purposely crafting the Obama-is-a-Muslim rumor and the Trig-is-Palin's-grandson rumor, then planting them in blogospheres where they were sure to flourish. I am not aware of any hard evidence for this sort of maliciously motivated rumor planting.

But it is not at all hard to imagine.

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Nicholas Di Fonzo, The Watercooler Effect, current affairs, politics, elections, rumors, social science, psychology, books, Penguin Books