Year of the Bulldog, by Elizabeth Wissner-Gross:

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We’re in for a dramatic change in the high-end college admissions pattern this year—that’s my prediction—as a result of Harvard and Princeton’s move to eliminate Early applications. The way I envision this year’s admissions process shaping up, Yale will receive a record number of Early Action applications—not just a 10 percent or 20 percent increase. But from my tracking of the situation, I’m expecting the number of Single Choice Early Action (SCEA) candidates to Yale to more than double, maybe triple.

Although a Yale admissions spokesman said that the numbers aren’t in yet and he couldn’t yet quantify the increase, he said the university is indeed seeing increased action this year in the days before Nov. 1, the SCEA application deadline. More students have been showing up at info sessions and inquiring about Yale. And Yale’s website is “strongly” advising SCEA applicants to get their materials in sooner this year, as Yale “will begin reading applications after mid-October,” instead of waiting until Nov. 1 to start.

In a “typical year”—if such a year ever existed—Yale claims to attract more than 20,000 applications for 1,300 freshman spaces. This would seem to translate into a 7.5 percent acceptance rate, and 92.5 percent rejection rate. But actually closer to 1,800 are accepted each year by Yale, and about 30 percent of those choose not to attend. So in a so-called “typical year,” about 9 percent are accepted, leaving a 91 percent rejection rate. But this is no typical year, so expect the rejection rate to increase dramatically.

Among the additional applicants this year are students who would have applied to Harvard Early Action (last year 3,869 seniors applied to Harvard Early; 813 were accepted) and those who would have applied to Princeton Early Decision (last year 598 students, almost half of Princeton’s entering class, were admitted Early Decision).

As I see it, when Harvard and Princeton decided to eliminate Early applications for this year, they handed Yale a golden platter containing the collective pool of Harvard-Princeton-Yale would-be Early applicants. And they virtually told Yale that it could have first pick of high school seniors this year.

As a result, I am seeing top students from all over America and even overseas crowding the Yale applicant pool. In addition to the increase in applications caused by the population increase, Yale seems to be drawing applications from students whose dream it is to attend Harvard or Princeton, but who don’t want to throw away the Early application opportunity. Three applicant pools are likely applying to Yale Early Action.

Yale doesn’t hold the exclusive on this Early bonus, I should note. The other “most competitive” colleges that must be benefiting from this windfall are MIT/Caltech (students may apply to both at the same time) and Stanford, which I see also drawing record numbers this year.

“So what?” you might think if your kid isn’t in the top pool. “This is all elitist competition that won’t impact MY kid.”

But parents of children in the next tier need to tune in too. Because not everyone is getting into Yale Early this year. And when the vast majority of Yale applicants are rejected or deferred this December, you’d better believe that those highly qualified students are going to blanket the Ivies, plus Stanford, MIT/Caltech, plus another 10 or so colleges apiece with applications. For the first time, I am hearing some parents insist that their kids apply to 30 colleges this year. A year ago, 15 colleges sounded like overkill. This will impact every tier of college admissions.

In other words, expect a trickle-down effect in the most competitive year ever for college applications.

My next blog entry will focus on some of the newest and most interesting non-Ivy options.

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Elizabeth Wissner-Gross, What High Schools Don't Tell You, Penguin Books, college, exams, admissions, high school, SAT, Ivy League, top tier, advice, counseling, university, students, books