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We’re in for a dramatic change in the high-end college admissions pattern this year—that’s my prediction—as a result of Harvard and Princeton’s move to eliminate Early applications. The way I envision this year’s admissions process shaping up, Yale will receive a record number of Early Action applications—not just a 10 percent or 20 percent increase. But from my tracking of the situation, I’m expecting the number of Single Choice Early Action (SCEA) candidates to Yale to more than double, maybe triple.

Although a Yale admissions spokesman said that the numbers aren’t in yet and he couldn’t yet quantify the increase, he said the university is indeed seeing increased action this year in the days before Nov. 1, the SCEA application deadline. More students have been showing up at info sessions and inquiring about Yale. And Yale’s website is “strongly” advising SCEA applicants to get their materials in sooner this year, as Yale “will begin reading applications after mid-October,” instead of waiting until Nov. 1 to start.

In a “typical year”—if such a year ever existed—Yale claims to attract more than 20,000 applications for 1,300 freshman spaces. This would seem to translate into a 7.5 percent acceptance rate, and 92.5 percent rejection rate. But actually closer to 1,800 are accepted each year by Yale, and about 30 percent of those choose not to attend. So in a so-called “typical year,” about 9 percent are accepted, leaving a 91 percent rejection rate. But this is no typical year, so expect the rejection rate to increase dramatically.